2026 Mid-Peninsula Real Estate Forecast and Market Outlook

After a bit of a rollercoaster last year, the 2026 Mid-Peninsula Real Estate Forecast suggests we're heading for a solid year with some great opportunities.

So, 2025 is in the rearview mirror, and everyone who owns a home or is looking to buy in San Carlos, Redwood City, and Belmont has one thing on their mind: Is this finally the year the market evens out a bit? The data does suggest a shift is underway.

Before we dive in, note that while national headlines often paint a broad picture, real estate is always very local. Our team at Veritas Homes is here to help you cut through the noise and understand what these numbers actually mean for your home and your financial future.

What Are Analysts Predicting for the 2026 Housing Market?

The broader economic landscape provides the backdrop for our local decisions. Heading into 2026, the consensus among economists is cautious optimism. Mortgage rates have settled near the low 6% range, offering much-needed predictability compared to the volatility of recent years. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), projects a 14% increase in home sales nationally for 2026 alongside modest price appreciation of around 4%.

This stability is a welcome change. The “tariff shock” and economic ripples we felt in early 2025 created hesitation, but the market has largely absorbed those impacts. We are seeing inventory levels normalize, meaning buyers have a few more choices, and sellers face more competition, than in the frantic post-pandemic years. If you are planning to buy a home in 2026, or sell and buy again (since 70-80% of sellers are buyers too), you might find the environment less frenzied, though well-priced homes remain in high demand.

How Is the Real Estate Market Performing in San Mateo County?

While national trends are important, the Mid-Peninsula Bay Area operates with its own unique drivers. As of December, we were in the midst of the typical seasonal slowdown. Listing and sales activity naturally contract during the holidays before waking up in mid-January. However, 2025 was generally more active than the previous year, with the number of listings going into contract in November rising 11% year over year across the county.

Prices are mixed depending on the property type. The 3-month-rolling median sales price for single-family homes (houses) rose 1.5% in November, while condo prices dipped about 4.5%. This divergence highlights the continued premium placed on single-family homes in our area.

Interestingly, we are seeing a disconnect between consumer confidence and financial markets. Consumer confidence metrics are low, yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been hitting all-time highs. This “wealth effect” is significant for many Bay Area residents. High stock portfolios, combined with banking relationships that often secure attractive Jumbo Loan rates below the national average, position many local buyers to move more aggressively. If you are looking to research specific areas, exploring our Mid-Peninsula community pages is a great place to start.

When Is the Best Time to Make a Move in the New Year?

Timing is everything. Conventional wisdom says to wait for spring, but the data suggests otherwise for savvy buyers. December and January often present a unique window where motivated sellers are more willing to negotiate. This is especially true for properties that have sat on the market a bit longer. You can potentially secure a better price before the spring rush begins.

For sellers, the “New Year's market” typically kicks off a period of building demand. Buyers who have been on the sidelines often re-enter the search with renewed energy in mid-January. To capitalize on this, you need a strategy that goes beyond just putting a sign in the yard. As top San Carlos Realtors and a boutique firm deeply rooted in the community, we put a strong focus on smart preparation and pricing.

We believe in real estate with integrity. We don't just chase transactions. We guide you through the complexities of the market with honest advice and a clear strategy. Plus, working with us means you are also supporting the community. Through our 'Change Homes Change Lives' initiative, we donate a portion of every commission to a charity of our client's choice. You can learn more about how we are giving back to the causes that matter to you.

Work With the Best Real Estate Agents in the Mid-Peninsula in 2026

The outlook for the 2026 real estate market in the Mid-Peninsula is positive, driven by stable rates and a strong local economy. Whether you are looking to sell your home in 2026 or finally purchase that dream property in San Carlos, Belmont, or Redwood City, having a trusted advisor makes all the difference. We are ready to help you navigate this changing landscape with confidence and local expertise.

We’d love to learn more about your personal situation and how we can help. Contact us today.